In Canada in 2009, during the economic recession, the unemployment rate was 8.4 percent. If the natural rate of unemployment is assumed to be 6.5 percent, then the real unemployment rate exceeded the natural rate by 1.9 percent (8.4 minus 6.5). This means that GDP could have been 3.8 percent higher (1.9 percent times 2). The actual real GDP during the economic downturn in 2009 was $1 549.8 billion, but it could have been 3.8 percent higher, or $58.9 billion more, in terms of dollars ($1 549.8 × 0.038). This figure represents the GDP gap. The potential GDP of the Canadian economy in 2009 was $1 608.7 billion—if only it had been able to achieve full employment.
This GDP gap can have a compounding effect over time. In Figure 12.6, the significance of labelling the two axes "Capital Goods" and "Consumer Goods" lies in the fact that, if the economy were fully utilizing its resources, the potential for producing more capital goods, without sacrificing any consumer goods, exists. The production of more capital goods in the present would translate into an outward shift of the production possibilities curve in the future because more capital goods would be available as inputs for the production process. If a country produces at point A, its future production possibilities curve (PPC) only shifts to PPC1 because of the relatively smaller amount of capital goods it is adding to the productive resource base compared with point B. If that same country were to produce at point B, its future PPC curve shifts to PPC2 instead because it has added relatively more capital goods for use in production without sacrificing any consumer good production. In future years, this "loss" of capital goods would continue to hold PPC curves to levels below what they could have been. This means that the GDP gap in the present has a significant long-term impact in the future—the loss of potential growth.
APPLYING ECONOMIC THINKING
1. In 2016, Canada’s GDP was $1 803.3 billion, and the unemployment rate was 7.0 percent. If the natural rate of unemployment is 6.5 percent, what was Canada’s GDP gap in 2016?
2. The data in the table below are from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The "natural rate of unemployment" in the OECD table is called the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). Calculate the GDP gap for each country presented in the table. (Data from stats.oecd.org)Country 2015 Nominal GDP ($ billions) 2015 Unemployment Rate (%) NAIRU (Natural Unemployment Rate) (%) Australia 6.1 5.6 1638.1 (AUD) Canada 6.9 6.6 1995.0 (CAD) Greece 24.9 16.0 176.0 (euro) Korea 3.6 3.4 1486 076.4 (won) Spain 22.0 15.5 1080.0 (euro) 5.3 4.5 United States 18 120.7 (USD).
