Question

Suppose a group of 100 women aged 60-64 got a new flu vaccine in 2004, and 5 of them died the following year. Is this event unusual? Specifically, how likely is it that at least 5 out of 100 women aged 60 to 64 who get the flu vaccine will die within the next year? Know the chance of dying of a woman aged 60-64 getting a new flu vaccine in the next five years is 0.009.

Answer 1

Therefore, the probability that at least 5 out of 100 women aged 60 to 64 who get the flu vaccine will die within the next year is 0.0000000059049%, making the event absolutely unusual.

Given that a group of 100 women aged 60-64 got a new flu vaccine in 2004, and 5 of them died the following year, to determine if this event is unusual, and specifically, how likely is it that at least 5 out of 100 women aged 60 to 64 who get the flu vaccine will die within the next year knowing that the chance of dying of a woman aged 60-64 getting a new flu vaccine in the next five years is 0.009, the following calculation must be performed:

• 0.009 x 0.009 x 0.009 x 0.009 x 0.009 = X
• 0.000000000059049 = X
• 0.000000000059049 x 100 = X
• 0.0000000059049% = X

Therefore, the probability that at least 5 out of 100 women aged 60 to 64 who get the flu vaccine will die within the next year is 0.0000000059049%, making the event absolutely unusual.

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