A ski resort gets an average of 2,000 customers per weekday with a standard deviation of 800 customers. Assume the underlying distribution is normal. Use an appropriate normal transformation to calculate the probability a ski resort averages more than 3,000 customers per weekday over the course of four weekdays.

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Answer:

0.62% probability that a ski resort averages more than 3,000 customers per weekday over the course of four weekdays

Step-by-step explanation:

To solve this question, we need to understand the normal probability distribution and the central limit theorem.

Normal probability distribution

Problems of normally distributed samples are solved using the z-score formula.

In a set with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the zscore of a measure X is given by:

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the measure is from the mean. After finding the Z-score, we look at the z-score table and find the p-value associated with this z-score. This p-value is the probability that the value of the measure is smaller than X, that is, the percentile of X. Subtracting 1 by the pvalue, we get the probability that the value of the measure is greater than X.

Central Limit Theorem

The Central Limit Theorem estabilishes that, for a normally distributed random variable X, with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]\sigma[/tex], the sampling distribution of the sample means with size n can be approximated to a normal distribution with mean [tex]\mu[/tex] and standard deviation [tex]s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}[/tex].

For a skewed variable, the Central Limit Theorem can also be applied, as long as n is at least 30.

In this problem, we have that:

[tex]\mu = 2000, \sigma = 800, n = 4, s = \frac{800}{\sqrt{4}} = 400[/tex]

Trobability a ski resort averages more than 3,000 customers per weekday over the course of four weekdays.

This is 1 subtracted by the pvalue of Z when X = 3000. So

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}[/tex]

By the Central Limit Theorem

[tex]Z = \frac{X - \mu}{s}[/tex]

[tex]Z = \frac{3000 - 2000}{400}[/tex]

[tex]Z = 2.5[/tex]

[tex]Z = 2.5[/tex] has a pvalue of 0.9938

1 - 0.9938 = 0.0062

0.62% probability that a ski resort averages more than 3,000 customers per weekday over the course of four weekdays

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