Question

In the country of Marut, the Foreign Trade agency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newly available about neighboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed that in every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year—a Goro state secret—very accurately.
Of the following claims, which is most strongly supported by the statements given ?
(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963 and 1994.
(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released data intended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.
(C) The amount by which the agency underestimated the GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase over time.
(D) Even before the new information came to light, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.
(E) The agency's five year projections of Goro's GNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

Answer 1

Answer:

D

Explanation:

Every year since 1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) would be five years later was a serious underestimate.

Thus, in 1963, the agency seriously underestimated the 1968 GNP (the GNP 5 years later).

Every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previous year very accurately.

Thus, in 1969, the agency very accurately estimated the 1968 GNP (the previous year's GNP).

The impliction of this is: in 1969, the agency knew that the ACTUAL 1968 GNP was much higher than the PREDICTED 1968 GNP (since the agency's prediction in 1963 was an underestimation).

This information supports D:

The agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-year projections it had made were inaccurate.

Cheers