The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
Mileage
3,100 (1)
4,000 (2)
3,500 (3)
3,800(4)
3,800(5)
a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = 3800
miles (round your response to the nearest whole number).
b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = nothing
miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)
c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.40
and 0.60
(the weight of 0.60
is for the most recent period) = nothing
miles (round your response to the nearest whole number).
The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.40
and 0.60
= nothing
miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.)
d) Using exponential smoothing with alpha
= 0.50
and the forecast for year 1 being 3,000
,
the forecast for year 6 = nothing
miles (round your response to the nearest whole number).
