Question

At the beginning of the year, experts were asked to predict a variety of world events (for example, the province of Quebec separating from Canada). The experts reported being 80 percent confident in their predictions. However, their predictions were correct only 40 percent of the time. This result reflects a flaw in thinking called _____.

Answer 1

This result reflects a flaw in thinking called  Overconfidence.

Explanation:

Overconfidence commits to the aspect that people’s trust in their decisions and wisdom is more leading than the exactness of these perceptions. To examine this consequence, the individual decision of trust in the exactness of a collection of results is correlated with the actual correctness of these statements.

overconfidence is the totality of the most comprehensive and most omnipresent of the various preferences to which individual assessment is exposed. The overconfidence influence happens when the confidence grades are higher than the rate of matching acknowledgments.