The spectre of three wars threatens American dominancFor decades, US militarywas based on the idea that the US should be able to fightultaneousldiffereat parts of the world. But even the most pessimistic strategistdoesnot plan three wars at once. However, Joe Biden’s administration is currently facingmilitarizedte in Eae a soand the ade fa, trt t c tut the atat chaengeplanning to invade Ukraine “asearly as early 2022”. Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary LloydAustin warned that Chinese militaryexercises near Taiwan looked like rehearsals for a full-scaleinvasion. lran could still be weeks awayfrom producing enough fissile material to build a nuclearweapon — an outcome the United Stateshas spent decades trying to prevent. Sclysts fearthe US may now be facing a concertedglobal attack by revisionist powers. Carl pildt a edish prime minister and internationadiplomat, warned that policy makers should consider thepossibility of invading both Taiwan andUkraine. “Taken together these two acts of conquest willfundamentally alter the global balance ofpower” he said, sounding the death knell for a worldorder that has “underpinned global peace foldecades” The idea of a three-way conference (volving lranian President Ebrahim Raisi spiraledinto pulp fiction ternosingle plan linking the ambitions of Beling, Moscowcompaod thatanalysis rand Tehran, there iswarines The fhinese Rudominate their own region. Both justify their ambitions by claiming kinshipwith people bewondtheir bordered that Ukraine is committing “genocideagainst Russian speakersand thathas a duty to protect them, The lranian governmentclaims to be the protectorand uses shia Muslims outside its borders asproxies. After its chaoticsummer withdrawal from Afghanistan, America looks weak, This increasethe temptation forRussia, china and lran to try to bury old arievances 0s move forwardwith tongtack on Ukraine or Taiwan would mark thetem ambitionenton other continents. An unopposed afundamental shiftin global power that Mr Bildt and others fear. But US power and credibility mayalso be diminishecby a series of less dramatic conciliatory measures that together suggest the usis retreating. TheBiden administration’s talk of a new security “accommodation” with Russia inEurope has causedconsternation in parts of the reqion. lf the United States backs down in the faceof Russian threat:over Ukraine, China may be encourd to step up its intimidation of Taiwalcial to Washington’s globalwhile lran may stepup its nuclear acceleinfluence. could alsobecome frustrated and start peeling away. The White House is alert to thesedangers. lt knows itmust pick its battlesangerously over-committed. Astronger Us position inEurope, Asia or the Middle East could help restore US deterrence arounothe world. But where, ifanywhere, should America flex its muscles? The scale of the threat points tcChina. The scale ofprovocation points to Russia. On a smaller scale, the risk points to lran, which is(so far) a non-nuclear power. ln strategic terms, the Biden administration’s instinct is to cast Chinaas the onlypossible challenger to the United States as the world’s sole superpower. Mr Biden hashinted thathe US would defend Taiwan if it were attacked — but has made no similar commentsaboutUkraine. Russia’s threat to Ukraine is in the shorter fuse
