There is a sushi restaurant in a shopping mall. The owner of the restaurant is deciding whether to
prepare Small (S), Medium (M) and Large (L) amount of fresh Toro (fatty tuna) in the morning of
a particular day. S, M, L supply of Toro, costing $2,400, $4,100 and $5,700 respectively, are
enough for serving 30, 50, 70 customer orders respectively. Based on past experience, the
probability of the having 30, 50 and 70 customer orders of Toro a day are 0.3, 0.5 and 0.2
respectively. Each customer order of Toro generates revenue of $200 to the restaurant. If the
demand exceeds the supply, rejection of customer order will result in a loss of $50 due to ill will.
If the supply exceeds the demand, the leftover Toro would be disposed in the evening to keep the
food quality of the restaurant.
(a) Construct a payoff table of this problem of Decision Analysis.
(b) Draw a decision tree to determine the optimal food supply and the corresponding
Expected Monetary Value (EMV).
(c) Determine the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) of this problem.
