Exercise 7 Consider the following time series data in which a, b and c are three different integers that will be chosen in the interval [2, 30). Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 22+a 12 17+b 14+e 21 23 13 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute a forecast for week 8. c. Use a=0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8. d. Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach usinga a=0.2. Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on SSR? e. Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on SSR? Explain.
