An economist believes that during periods of relatively high economic growth the (Ethiopian) birr depreciates with probability of 0.70 ; in periods of relatively moderate economic growth, the birr depreciates with probability of 0.40; and during periods of relatively low economic growth, the birr depreciates with probability of 0.20.During any period of time, the probability of high economic growth is 0.10, the probability of moderate growth is 0.25 and the probability of low economic growth is 0.65. Suppose the birr has been deprecating during period t. What is the probability that we are experiencing a period of relatively high economic growth?
